Warning on conditions of statistical data supplied by Polish Governement

Warning on conditions of statistical data supplied by Polish Governement
to International Financial Institutions

Hereby we kindly inform on the lack of integrity in the statistical data presented by Polish Main Statistical Office (Główny Urząd Statystyczny, GUS). Main indicators do not match the reality any longer.

1. State of demographic data

2009, 1.8 to 2.4 million Poles were reported in the popular daily press (see "It's a bad time to be young and Polish", The Guardian, 31.05.2011) to emigrate permanently or quasi- permanently from Poland. Exact data remains unresearched. Some cities, such as Zielona Góra in western Poland, circa 50 km (30 miles) away from German border, lost 90 % of its young creative class. We estimate the population of the to diminish from alleged 117 Thousand to 80 Thousand inhabitants, lower figures (60 Thousand) are also possible. Generational gaps appear, demographic changes are reflected in the patterns of microeconomic changes. For example, number of cultural events organised privately (like clubbing parties) diminished to negligeable levels, prrox. 70 % of pubs/ clubs operating 7 years ago, close.

The methodology used by GUS to collect these data can be described as non scientific- data are provided by public autohorities and are not verified upon any context.

2. Economic indicators

General allegation of Liberal Institute is the observation that no proper public sector statistics is and was conducted. Depreciation of such crucial economic assets as infrastructure and public housing is, to our knowledge, largly expluded from public statistics, due to many faftors, also due to the archaic level of economic sciences in Poland. As we unofficially inquired, such data would first need to be counted into the current GDP calculus.

We doubt that the data on decapitalisation of country's energetic, rail, road networks were included, for the lack of such statistics, or their doubtful content. Public housing, sector which was neglected in the last 20 years, causing large parts of whole cities to turn into slum, was most likely ommited due to the fact that no data are collected here. Public sector constitutes still a very large part of Polish hard infrastructure, however due to the quality of statistical work its current condition most probably was not reflected in statistical data.

According to Bodys, data on commercial investments increase do not match with data from companies, that were signaling rather reductions of investments. Radosław Bodrys, was astonished, how it is possicle, that, in time when economic contraction reached 10 % in Russia, 20 % in Ukraine, In Germany 7 % in Chech Republic 3 %,and in Poland the economy was increasing. Export was reduced by 15 %, industrial production went down by 10 % in first 3 months. Another case were investments, that according to Central Statistical Office wrere rising. According to Bodrys, companies starting from 3Q2008 were signaling reductions in investment expenditures.  

collected and prepared by Adam Fularz, research fellow

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